Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
